Environmental and societal factors associated with COVID-19-related death in people with rheumatic disease: an observational study.

Background: Differences in the distribution of individual-level clinical risk factors across regions do not fully explain the observed global disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to investigate the associations between environmental and societal factors and country-level variations in mortality attributed to COVID-19 among people with rheumatic disease globally. Methods: In this observational study, we derived individual-level data on adults (aged 18-99 years) with rheumatic disease and a confirmed status of their highest COVID-19 severity level from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance (GRA) registry, collected between March 12, 2020, and Aug 27, 2021. Environmental and societal factors were obtained from publicly available sources. The primary endpoint was mortality attributed to COVID-19. We used a multivariable logistic regression to evaluate independent associations between environmental and societal factors and death, after controlling for individual-level risk factors. We used a series of nested mixed-effects models to establish whether environmental and societal factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death. Findings: 14 044 patients from 23 countries were included in the analyses. 10 178 (72·5%) individuals were female and 3866 (27·5%) were male, with a mean age of 54·4 years (SD 15·6). Air pollution (odds ratio 1·10 per 10 µg/m3 [95% CI 1·01-1·17]; p=0·0105), proportion of the population aged 65 years or older (1·19 per 1% increase [1·10-1·30]; p<0·0001), and population mobility (1·03 per 1% increase in number of visits to grocery and pharmacy stores [1·02-1·05]; p<0·0001 and 1·02 per 1% increase in number of visits to workplaces [1·00-1·03]; p=0·032) were independently associated with higher odds of mortality. Number of hospital beds (0·94 per 1-unit increase per 1000 people [0·88-1·00]; p=0·046), human development index (0·65 per 0·1-unit increase [0·44-0·96]; p=0·032), government response stringency (0·83 per 10-unit increase in containment index [0·74-0·93]; p=0·0018), as well as follow-up time (0·78 per month [0·69-0·88]; p<0·0001) were independently associated with lower odds of mortality. These factors sufficiently explained country-level variations in death attributable to COVID-19 (intraclass correlation coefficient 1·2% [0·1-9·5]; p=0·14). Interpretation: Our findings highlight the importance of environmental and societal factors as potential explanations of the observed regional disparities in COVID-19 outcomes among people with rheumatic disease and lay foundation for a new research agenda to address these disparities. Funding: American College of Rheumatology and European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology.

Increased COVID-19 mortality in patients with rheumatic diseases: results from the CONTROL-19 study by the Italian Society for Rheumatology.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate differences in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality between patients with rheumatic musculoskeletal diseases (RMD) and the general population in Italy. METHODS: We analysed the data from the national surveillance study promoted by the Italian Society for Rheumatology (CONTROL-19 database) including patients with RMD and COVID-19 between 26 March 2020 and 29 November 2020, compared with official data from the Italian population (within the same period) adjusted for age, sex and geographic location. The main outcome of the analyses was mortality. The relationship between RMD and mortality was analysed using adjusted logistic models and sensitivity analyses were conducted to support the robustness of our results. RESULTS: We included 668 RMD patients (62.7% with inflammatory arthritis, 28.6% with systemic autoimmune diseases), who had a mean age of 58.4 years and of which 66% were female. Compared to the general population, the RMD population showed an increased risk of death (OR 3.10 (95% CI 2.29-4.12)), independently from the differences in age and sex distribution. Even after considering the potential influence of surveillance bias, the OR was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.55-2.73). Such excess of risk was more evident in the subgroup of younger patients, and more consistent in women. Subjects with systemic autoimmune diseases showed a higher risk of death than patients with any other RMDs. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with RMD and COVID-19 infection evidenced a significant increase in mortality during the first pandemic phases in Italy. These findings support the need for strong SARS-CoV-2 prevention in patients with rheumatic diseases.

Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.

COVID-19 in rheumatic diseases in Italy: first results from the Italian registry of the Italian Society for Rheumatology (CONTROL-19)

OBJECTIVES: Italy was one of the first countries significantly affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. The Italian Society for Rheumatology promptly launched a retrospective and anonymised data collection to monitor COVID-19 in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs), the CONTROL-19 surveillance database, which is part of the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance. METHODS: CONTROL-19 includes patients with RMDs and proven severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) updated until May 3rd 2020. In this analysis, only molecular diagnoses were included. The data collection covered demographic data, medical history (general and RMD-related), treatments and COVID-19 related features, treatments, and outcome. In this paper, we report the first descriptive data from the CONTROL-19 registry. RESULTS: The population of the first 232 patients (36% males) consisted mainly of elderly patients (mean age 62.2 years), who used corticosteroids (51.7%), and suffered from multi-morbidity (median comorbidities 2). Rheumatoid arthritis was the most frequent disease (34.1%), followed by spondyloarthritis (26.3%), connective tissue disease (21.1%) and vasculitis (11.2%). Most cases had an active disease (69.4%). Clinical presentation of COVID-19 was typical, with systemic symptoms (fever and asthenia) and respiratory symptoms. The overall outcome was severe, with high frequencies of hospitalisation (69.8%), respiratory support oxygen (55.7%), non-invasive ventilation (20.9%) or mechanical ventilation (7.5%), and 19% of deaths. Male patients typically manifested a worse prognosis. Immunomodulatory treatments were not significantly associated with an increased risk of intensive care unit admission/mechanical ventilation/death. CONCLUSIONS: Although the report mainly includes the most severe cases, its temporal and spatial trend supports the validity of the national surveillance system. More complete data are being acquired in order to both test the hypothesis that RMD patients may have a different outcome from that of the general population and determine the safety of immunomodulatory treatments.